Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Trump did NOT get an 8-point bump. The only poll that had that was inaccurate because it compared June to July. Trump got 3-4 which is low-average.
Quote
The now-cast also suggests that Trump has gained a net of about 4 percentage points on Clinton in national polls from a week ago, turning a deficit of about 3 points into a 1-point lead. If so, Trump would turn out to have a fairly typical convention bounce. Over the past few cycles, convention bounces have been 3 to 4 percentage points, on average. As is also typical of convention bounces, Trump appears to have gained in the polls (taking votes from undecided and third-party candidates) more than Clinton has declined.
FiveThirtyEight

It is also important to take into consideration the built-in bias of the polls. FiveThirtyEight does a good job of that. In addition, be mindful that it is to need media advantage to report poll changes to drive views/clicks.

Similarly, the favourable/unfavorable numbers haven't really changed. I don't know where you got that info. Trump is underwater by about 22.5%, Clinton by 17 (RCP), but even that is questionable given timeframes of surveys.

I expect Clinton bounce to be 6% or so. Dems have a more positive message, better speakers, more unity, and DNC follows RNC.(One should also not discount location. Philly has historical significance.) As I said before, I think this is Trump's apex and Clinton will gain a point a month August- November. Don't panic, but do vote.

I agree that there is a good chance Clinton's numbers will improve. But RCP unfavorability numbers for both candidates are:

[Linked Image from s32.postimg.org]

[Linked Image from s32.postimg.org]

His trend is improving more than hers although her current number - July 25 - is better than his.

"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky