Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
The "now cast" from FiveThirtyEight has it 86% for Clinton, 14% for Trump. I don't think that is safe enough. We have 3 months to go. I'd like to see it at 98% by the end of the Olympics. I agree with the President. Trump is simply unfit.

Even the "polls only" have Clinton at 68% and Trump at 32%. That is a pretty wide lead (more than double). In probability that is extremely significant.
Her numbers have always been better than his. As I said - better to let the dust settle and the volatility die down. I think by late September we'll be closer to a reliable forecast.

"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky