I admit that I am disturbed by the inevitable.
FiveThirtyEight's forecasts have Clinton's probability of winning eroding, if ever so slightly (from 90+% to 80+% in the "now cast" and from near 80% to just 73+% in the "polls-plus"). I don't think this augers a sea change, but I would prefer he lead to remain more pronounced.
As I understand it, the polls plus has a built in tightening factor due to the economic fundamentals signifying a tight race.
Been thinking about the Brexit effect, where the pollsters missed a significant voter cohort on which that vote ultimately hinged. Could that happen here? I think on the GOP side the Brexit voting types were already captured by the tea party movement and are already counted in Trumps support. That would leave the traditionally Democratic party voters.
538's Blue state polling abyss still leaves some uncertainty.
