Nate's models are Bayesian and he knows what he's doing. Every model, by definition, is a simplification of reality. But, the method used by Nate and Co. is far superior. It's one of the best ways to measure probabilities with little or poor data. They are the most reliable.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
| 
