Looking at Utah again. The numbers right now show if a few percent of Trump's supporters actually vote for McMullin, Hillary takes the state. All three are very close, and Johnson has 7%.
She could really take it if women who say they support Trump secretly vote for McMullin.
Latest poll:
Clinton 30%
Trump 33%
Johnson 7%
McMullin 26%
So if about 10.5% of Trump supporters voted for McMullin, she might win without getting any more votes. A bigger shift would put it in McMullin's column.
