Well today at least the polls appear to be stabilising, trump is lo longer rising. I suspect as last Friday's Comey intervention recedes that Clinton's numbers will tick up slightly over the next few days.
She is currently in a spot where a systemic opinion polling error in favour of trump would flip the election. The shy trump voter theory.
Although it would appear that they dont exist.
That said there is also the possibility of a polling error in favour of Clinton (The Hispanic vote not being adequately modeled in lively voter weighting). Early voting reports would suggest that as a possibility in Florida and Texas (yes that Texas) but such reports are generally not good predictors of eventual results.
The firewall appears to have held over the past week, so she has that going for her. Trump appears to need to win at lease one blue state in which he is 3-4% behind - can such a deficit be made up in a weekend?
I would put a small wager on sufficient female (and indeed sane male) traditionally republican voters pulling the level for Clinton to give her a decent popular vote plurality if not an outright majority. Where this vote is concentrated will of course be key.
One other factor to consider is Trumps official and unofficial
ballot security voter suppression*. I would not be surprised to see some incidents of violence in certain parts of the country. I really hope I'm wrong and every behaves in a polite, civic and dignified manner.... News reports of flashpoints however small could have a major influence -especially if breathlessly over-exaggerated as is the current vogue.
And I've taken Wednesday off so I'll be appearing here all night with increasingly less sober commentary as it gets later (and earlier).
*they should burn in hell for grabbing democracies pussy like that.
