At our current level of quarantine, most Americans will be infected by about April 15th. By April 30th, most of those will be either recovered or dead. The ratio of fatalities if good treatment is available can be seen in the Korean data: It's about 1.4% fatality overall. But in America, we are already over the numbers of infected for most people to get good treatment. When you run out of ventilators, the fatality rate jumps to over 5%. So instead of 4.6 million dead, we will have more like 16 million. Most of these will be old people, but it will affect every age group.

Clamping down the quarantines today could lower that number, but I think we already have too many people infected to get everybody who needs a ventilator to have one. But flattening the curve can help it be closer to the lower number dead.

One reason almost everybody will get infected is we have a very leaky quarantine. For example, one researcher found that 50% of Wuhan victims reported extreme diarrhea as their first symptom. Most information sources are ignoring this, but it is very good evidence that infection through food is possible. A lot of the media are promoting take-out food, but a single asymptomatic food service worker in a restaurant kitchen could contaminate every take-out order. And who works in restaurant kitchens? A lot of young people who come to work even if they are mildly sick.

So Trump gets his wish: Mostly it will be over by April 30th. But a lot of us will not be here.

Educating anyone benefits everyone.