In my self-imposed isolation state, I have been Coronobsessed. I've read a number of papers outlining forecasting models (there's a really good one from the University of Washington) and done a bit of my own calculations. I put my numbers up against the models and got depressed again. [The whole point of the exercise was to get emotional distance from the pandemic!]

It turns out the models were too modest. The next 10 days are going to be very dark unless the trend changes drastically in the next 48 hours. By my calculations, we'll pass China's death toll by Monday night, and Spain's by week's end. God, I wish we had a President with half a brain.