Lots of different death rates for different countries have been published, but most are crap: They compare deaths to confirmed cases, but the number of real cases is generally unknown. The very best info we have right now is from South Korea where they have tested a lot and are well past their peak. Their death rate is 1.5%.

If we could flatten the curve and keep medical resources available, we could have 1.5%. About 5% of patients need ventilators. If we run out, the overflow death rate jumps to 5%. 15% need ICU space. If we run out of ICU beds, that overflow rate jumps to 15%. Of course, just having ventilators is not enough. We need qualified respiratory therapists, ICU nurses, and anesthesiologists to supervise them. We need syringe pumps to keep feeding the patients drugs. We need those drugs! And we need medical workers who are not quarantined with the virus.

Getting another million ventilators from GM in June misses the huge peak in April.

The models are grim, but based on the best numbers available. Americans are not very good at taking orders, so I think the models are correct. Trump gets his wish: We get it over with quickly, but millions die. Trump will be known as the Holocaust President. ICU workers who survive are going to be in therapy for PTSD for years.