Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
The best model I have seen actually uses the death numbers to feed back into things like R0 and the real number of infected. We know the death numbers for many days, and we can make the assumption the death rate is fairly constant. The most important thing we get out of the models is that R0 (the number of people an average victim infects) is partly set by the transmissability of the virus but also by our behavior. We can knock that down to zero if we actually decide to all do that. But that is not usual human behavior and especially not American behavior. There are still people claiming this is a hoax, a Democratic plot against Trump, quarantines a violation of our constitutional rights, etc.
I have done a number of lengthy posts on that other site (and fought a lot of idiots over them), and I may bring some of those posts here (if I can). My main takeaways are these:
1) The confirmed cases and fatalities are progressing at roughly the same rate, which indicates that there is a correlation (even though I think there is a substantial undiagnosed population) between them. I think that is because the confirmed cases are probably mostly symptomatic, if not hospitalized.
2) The progression rate seems to be consistent at about a 25% daily growth rate (*1.25), although daily counts can vary significantly. My projections line up with actual experience about every 3 days.
3) The fatality rate in the United States seems to be between 1.7 and 1.8% to date. That may change if hospital resources get overwhelmed, which seems likely.
4) In the absence of significant deviation from the current experience, we will probably exceed China's fatality experience by tomorrow, and Spain's by next weekend. My projections to date indicate we'll have between 160,000 to 250,000 fatalities. Very sobering.

Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I was please to read that a prominent preacher in Virginia who claimed the virus was a hoax was one of the first people in the state to die from it. Very fitting. Sometimes your greatest purpose in life is to serve as a bad example for others.
Gives me faith that there may, indeed, be a god, and they have a sense of humor.