So you are predicting only about 15 million people get infected? I think it may be more like 80% of the population or 264 million. I don't think our quarantines are that good, because people keep on going food shopping, getting take-out food, and immediately opening mail. When the mailman has an asymptomatic case, he can infect everybody on his route. And then there's all the people still working at those essential liquor stores, Home Depots, etc. in a lot of states with Republican Governors. I think there is at least one state that has deemed every business "essential". If a lot of people break quarantine to go to Easter services like Trump wants, essentially all of them could be infected right there.

I think that there might be 20% who are being so careful, or so OCD, they won't catch it.