Originally Posted by rporter314
I believe there are fundamental problems with your analysis. While the frequency stats are probably correct, you have neglected many variables which may not explain your conclusion.

Examples are if 90% are voting party line who did the other 10% vote for? was it the other party of someone else? This may make independent voters irrelevant. Suppose 75% of Democrats vote and only 60% of Republicans .... I should conclude it doesn't matter how independents voted, which points out one of the most important stats .... how many of each party voted. And most important of course is the electoral votes, not the national stats.
in 2016 89% of Democrats vote for Hillary, 8% for Trump 3% for third party which the Democratic vote made up 36% of the electorate.
Republicans voted for Trump 88-8 over Hillary with 4% voting third party, Republicans made up 33% of the voting electorate.
Independents voted Trump over Hillary 46-42 with 12% voting third party, Independents made up 31% of those who voted in 2016.

2012 92% of Democrats voted for Obama, 6% for Romney, 2% third party. democrats made up 36% of those who voted.
Republicans voted 93-6 Romney over Obama with 1% voting third party. Republicans made up 32% of the electorate who voted.
Independents voted 50-45 Romney over Obama with 5% voting third party. Independents made up 29% of the voting electorate.

If you take these averages back in time, they average out to 90% of those who identify with the major parties voting for their candidates.

Let's look at the 3 deciding states and Florida for the 2016 election.

Wisconsin democrats voted 91-7 Hillary over Trump, 2% third party. Democrats made up 35% of those who voted.
Republicans voted 90-6 Trump over Hillary with 4% voting third party. Republicans made up 34% of Wisconsin's electorate.
Independents voted 50-40 Trump over Hillary with 10% voting third party. Independents made up 30% of the voting electorate.

Michigan Democrats voted 88-9 Hillary over Trump, 3% voting third party. Democrats made up 40% of all of those who voted.
Republicans voted 90-7 Trump over Clinton, 3% voting third party, Republicans made up only 31% of those who voted.
Independents voted 52-35 Trump over Hillary with 13% voting third party. Independents made up 29% of the voting electorate in Michigan.

Pennsylvania Democrats voted 87-11 Hillary over Trump with 2% voting third party. Democrats made up 42% of the voting electorate.
Republicans voted 89-9 Trump over Hillary with 2% voting third party. Republicans made up 39% of those who voted.
Independents voted 48-41 Trump over Hillary with 11% voting third party against both candidates. Independents made up 20% of the voting electorate.

And finally Florida.
democrats voted 90-8 Hillary over Trump with 2% voting third party. Democrats made up 32% of the those who voted.
Republicans voted 89-8 Trump over Hillary with 3% voting third party. Republicans made up 33% of the electorate in Florida this election.
Independents voted 47-43 Trump over Clinton with 10% voting third party. Independents made up 34% of the Florida electorate.

Interesting thing about Florida among those who voted is Independents were the largest voting block. Not by much 34% independent, 33% Republican, 32% Democratic.

Fact is the independent vote was decisive in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and in Florida. This is especially true in Michigan were among those who voted, turnout, Democrats had a 40-31 advantage, but independents by their huge margin for Trump 52-35 negated that numerical advantage.

One last thing, the 6% who voted third party was the largest number of voters who voted for third party candidates since 1996 when a well funded Ross Perot ran. Compare that 6% to 2012 when 1.5% voted third party, to 2008 when 1.2% voted third party and to 2004 when 1.0% voted third party.

In 2016 Hillary raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump's 646.8 million to all third party candidates of just 6 million dollars. Third party candidates were out spent almost 2 billion to 6 million, yet managed 6% of the vote. I wonder if the spending was fairly equal what would have happened?

when Perot received 9% of the vote in 1996 he and other third party candidates spent 41 million, Bill Clinton spent 298 million, Dole 195 million.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.