The new infection rate, R0, is determined by the virus's communicability times our own behavior. If our lockdown was perfect, there would be NO new cases. That is R0 = 0. But our lockdown is far from perfect. In New York City, we are getting it down to R0 = 0.8 or so. That's why new cases are declining. But it's entirely determined by our behavior.

Idiots are already protesting about "Muh Freedom", and Governors are being pressured to open stuff back up. That means R0 > 1, so increased new cases. I'm thinking sensible behavior based on science is just not in the majority of Americans' character. It would be interesting if Trump's base went with Freedumb and 20% of them died when the hospitals get overwhelmed, and the majority of Democrats remain sheltered. That might have a major effect on elections in 2020 and well beyond.

I can see history and civics classes in future decades talking about the poor results of believing "alternate facts" and rejecting expertise.