Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
If Georgia lifts all restrictions and keeps everything open, the potential infectees to the herd immunity point are (70-23)% * 10 million population. That's 4.7 million people. If just 1% of them die, that's 47,000 people. The economic impact of that would be about 470 billion dollars. Can Georgia afford that?

I don't think so. So I predict an opening, a surge in infections and deaths, and then another closure. This will happen in every state that "reopens", because most people are idiots who will go nuts and party, eat out, and hookup with strangers like mad as soon as their state opens. It's going to be like an "all clear" siren that gets everybody out in the street just before the bombs start falling.

States could reopen without that fiasco, but it would require everybody to wear masks whenever out, maintain distance, be very careful with anything that could be contaminated, etc. I think most people will fail miserably at that.

Agreed, 100%, except for one thing: if the spontaneous R0 (without containment measures) of this virus is 5.7 like some updated estimates propose, then the percentage of the population necessary for herd immunity is 82.5%. That would increase the number of dead people in Georgia above what you calculated, if they didn't exercise any containment measure whatsoever.

Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.