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I think breaking his "No New Taxes," pledge is what doom Bush.
Not surprising, left leaners trend towards more taxation so "no new taxes" is a bit of an insult to them. A slight leftward lean is all that differentiates Democrats from Republicans and the "independents" are about as equally divided ideologically as their partisan counterparts.
If the failure to uphold a promise of "no new taxes" was a trigger issue among right leaning independents then they would be pissed off enough to come out in slightly higher numbers against the failing executive.