I think what we will have by December is a bunch of data from Brazil. Vaccine makers are running trials there because it has a very high infection rate. That is very beneficial for testing. What you want to see is nobody vaccinated getting Covid-19, and the control arm getting it at the same rate as the general population. That would be a perfect vaccine, and you could say it works pretty quickly. Less infection means you have to run the trial longer to get enough infections in the control arm.

And from Phase I and II trials, it looks like all the vaccines in Phase III trials will work, more or less. Most of the leading contenders are vaccinating against the same antigens, thanks to the Chinese releasing the virus gene sequence so early. What we actually need from the Phase III trials is to know what are the side effects. We don't want another Swine Flu vaccination that paralyzes people.