I have been continuing my analysis of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through the population (A bit OCD, this one), and the positive and fatality reporting. Short form: 22 days straight of 60,000+ new cases/day from July 14-Aug 3; 13 days 50,000+; then we're in the 17th day of a string of 40,000+ days. Fatalities followed a similar pattern, but delayed by two weeks: Starting July 29, 1000+ fatalities/day for 24 days; 900+ fatalities/day from August 22-Sep 2; and now we've entered a stretch of 800+ fatalities/day.

Each of the last two surges is clearly anchored by a holiday. Memorial Day, May 25, and Independence day, July 4. As we enter the Labor Day weekend, I expect a similar surge beginning about 10 days after the weekend. This period, however, is a bit more complicated because of school reopenings.
Quote
A New York Times survey of more than 1,500 American colleges and universities — including every four-year public institution, every private college that competes in N.C.A.A. sports and others that identified cases — has revealed at least 51,000 cases and at least 60 deaths since the pandemic began.
(NYT, Subscription) - "dozens that have seen spikes in recent weeks as dorms have reopened and classes have started. Many of the metro areas with the most cases per capita in recent days — including Auburn, Ala.; Ames, Iowa; and Statesboro, Ga. — have hundreds of cases at universities." See, e.g., Coronavirus Cases Spike on College Campuses as Students Return: Track Them Here Coronavirus Cases Spike on College Campuses as Students Return: Track Them Here (NBC, local)"Nearly 17,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported at more than 100 colleges and universities in recent weeks as students return to campuses while the pandemic rages on."

Similar results are occurring at public K-12 schools, although I am having a harder time tracking that data (Hmm, wonder why, Betsy DeVos?). Many school districts and universities have already suspended classes and moved to online learning. I expect similar results throughout the fall.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich