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1. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment. 2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02. 3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina. 5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270.