For the last 3 months according to RCP averages Biden has been at 49/50 while Trump at 42/43. Which leaves only around 8% undecided at this time or over the last 3 months. That's quite different from 2016 when you had fluctuations for Trump between 35-44 and Hillary between 41-46 with the lead for Hillary ranging from minus 1 to plus 7. You also had a huge undecided column of between 15-20% depending on the day.

In 2016 Hillary never rose above 46% in the polls whereas Biden has been flirting with the 50% mark for the last 3 months. On 20 Sep 2016 Trump was at 41%, today he's at 43%. Hillary was at 42%, today Biden is at 49%. Although Trump is doing 2 points better this year than in 2016, Biden is 7 points better than Hillary was in 2016. The third party vote is down from 12% in 2016 to a meager 4% this year.

I think the difference is due to 12% of independents voting third party, against both Trump and Clinton because they dislike both and didn't want neither one to become their next president. This year, they dislike Biden a whole lot less than they did Clinton while their dislike of Trump remains steady. So Biden in my opinion is picking up at least half of that 12% who opted to vote third party in 2016. Hence the difference between 43 and 49%.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.