270ToWin currently has Biden's base support at 290 electoral votes, with a likely ceiling of 335. The problem is that the States he is most likely to carry are not States that are likely to report results on election night. That gives Trump the opportunity to sow doubt in the days between election night and December, when the votes are officially tallied. They already have lawsuits going in most of the swing States, and many others, and have 3000 lawyers in their pocket ready to gum up the works.

How Trump Court Spark A Full-Blown Election Crisis (538, Video)

The real savior of the country could be Florida, if Biden wins it. Florida, as a result of 2000, has mechanism in place to count votes quickly. Biden is actually leading among seniors there, so it is possible that he pulls it out. That would make his victory nearly impossible to deny.

The fly in the ointment on election night is "exit polling". In a typical election year news agencies rely heavily on exit polling to "call" races. Unfortunately, with heavy early/absentee voting - where Biden leads by 2-1 margin - and Trump's same-day voter polling advantage - where Republicans are more likely to vote by a 2-1 margin - there is likely to be a genuine disconnect between exit polls and actual votes. That means a lot of States will not be "called" on election night. If that transpires, we are likely in a world of hurt.

Last edited by NW Ponderer; 10/12/20 02:46 PM.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich