Originally Posted by perotista
I don't dwell much into demographics when they're included in the three major groups. Republicans, democrats and independents. All demographics are covered there, they're included in just those three groups of voters without have to do a ton of delving into it.

I have a simple formula to figure out the popular vote, 90% of republicans will vote for Trump, 90% of democrats for Biden. That's the historical average of how those who affiliate or identify themselves with the two major parties.

The largest group are those that don’t vote. Be they Dem, Repub or Indie. One wonders how much less participation will happen before it’s clear to everyone that this is ritual farce dressed up as democracy. At some point we resemble late stage imperial Rome with a couple dozen patrician families taking turns at controlling the state. You could make the case that we are already there.
I’d argue your simple formula has no context either. How would it explain Iowa in the primaries? Nor does it illustrate the suppressive effects of denying a winner coming out of that contest in terms of a bump in polling and media attention. Likewise, simple polling doesn’t give you a clue to what effect the widespread voter suppression efforts, that both political factions are employing, will have in the outcome of the vote totals.

I guess it has the benefit of being a simple way to predict which runt majority may win. Doesn’t say much about how.

Last edited by chunkstyle; 10/19/20 08:48 AM.