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When the mathematics fail ... I use my spidey sense
That's a little too close to Trump using his gut instead of expert advice!
But I'm not really talking about asking a sample of those folks why they didn't vote, thus introducing selection errors. I meant asking all of them. You are not going to get some large consensus. You are going to get a bunch of reasons. The big problem would be people rationalizing some reason when the real reason is just sloth or apathy.