Are Delta and Omicron two distinct viruses running in parallel? The data suggests yes.

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...[when] the variant was first identified last month, epidemiologists cautioned to be careful about attributing rapid case growth to either immune evasion or increased transmissibility, in part because, especially before detailed data emerged, the two effects could produce basically the same picture at the population level. But while an early consensus formed that the variant was inarguably more transmissible than Delta, a few newer data points suggest, at least, a more complicated picture. In Denmark, it appears not only that previous infection or vaccination offers less protection against infection with Omicron, but that the new variant is in fact spreading faster among those considered “safe” than those we reflexively consider “vulnerable.” And according to a report published Tuesday by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, “Those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are more likely to be infected with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated."

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...the variant was first identified last month, epidemiologists cautioned to be careful about attributing rapid case growth to either immune evasion or increased transmissibility, in part because, especially before detailed data emerged, the two effects could produce basically the same picture at the population level. But while an early consensus formed that the variant was inarguably more transmissible than Delta, a few newer data points suggest, at least, a more complicated picture. In Denmark, it appears not only that previous infection or vaccination offers less protection against infection with Omicron, but that the new variant is in fact spreading faster among those considered “safe” than those we reflexively consider “vulnerable.” And according to a report published Tuesday by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, “Those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are more likely to be infected with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated.”


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