Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Dr. John Campbell says about 15% of the population of the UK now has Covid-19. In the US we have over 1 million active cases. He also showed a graph the other day estimating Rt (the current spread rate) at around 2.

Based on these numbers, I can make certain predictions: (Cassandra time)

1) The UK is within a week or two of every immunologically naive person being infected. The doubling time has to be around five days, so within a week, 15% becomes 30%. After another week, that becomes 60%. Before that happens everybody gets immunity (or goes on to die), through either vaccination or infection.

2) The US currently has 1 million infected. We have somewhere under 100 million naive. Assuming a five day doubling period, it goes 2 million, 4 million, 8 million, 16 million, 32 million, and then 64 million. So within 30 days everybody is immune, through vaccination or infection. Unfortunately, about a million more people die, mostly the unvaccinated. We have a very limited supply of MABs and anti-viral drugs, so those are not going to make any meaningful dent in that number.

Even at 1 million some hospitals are on the verge of collapse. Scripps Hospital in North San Diego County says they have over 700 staff members out with positive tests. I think they are going to have to change their policy, and let positive asymptomatic staff members attend patients who are already positive for Covid. They have tents setup outside their ER, but they will run out of space soon.

The next month is going to be a very dangerous time for the unvaccinated who never were infected. Hospitals are going to be unable to help them, so the death rate might actually be higher. Anybody with a heart attack, broken leg, gall bladder inflammation, appendicitis, etc. is going to be SOL. Anybody unvaccinated, limited protection begins on day 11 after the first vaccination, so you can still do something. For those of us vaccinated, it won't be particularly bad. Just very very sad.

Caveat: My predictions are my own, nobody else's. If we have less than 2 million cases by 1/10/22, then I'm wrong.

This you?

‘ “As for "super transmission ability" claims for Omicron (and every earlier variant), I doubt them.”