JGW – I think you need to look at the historical averages for a party in power, full control, who has a president hovering around the 40% overall job approval. Biden is at 42%. The historical average is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats and 4.25 governors. Midterms have always been a referendum on the party in power.

Projected today is a loss of around 15 house seats, either a gain of 1 or a loss of 1 or the senate remaining in a tie. Governors could be a wash or another pickup of 1 or a loss of 1. That’s real good when looking at the historical average. Not what you or anyone on this site wants to hear, but I would place it in the category of a Democratic victory in besting, actually troucing the historical average when a president is hovering around 40%. To expect the Democrats to keep control of both chambers of congress is like living in a fantasy land. Not in your wildest dreams. The GOP needed but a net gain of 5 seats to retake the house and 1 senate seat to take control of the senate.

The main problem this time around in the house is the Republicans gained 13 house seats in 2020 all the while Biden was winning by 7 plus million votes. A lot of ticket splitters in 2020 voting for Biden, in reality against Trump more than for Biden, then Republican down ballot. Add to that the number of Democratic house incumbents that decided to retire or seek higher office this year leaving a whopping 36 open seats vs. 16 for the Republicans. Open seats are much easier to flip, switch than beating an incumbent.

For some reason, independents seem to like divided government. They elected Bill Clinton, then 2 years later gave him a Republican congress. Then they elect G.W. Bush and in 2006, give him a Democratic congress. If not for 9-11, independents would have given Bush a Democratic congress in 2002 instead of waiting until 2006. They elect Obama in 2008, then give Obama a Republican House in 2010 and a Republican senate in 2014. Independents elected Trump in 2016 and promptly gave him a Democratic house in 2018. One shouldn’t be surprised if independents give Biden a Republican house this year. It seems that is normal procedure for independents. Perhaps independents are trying to tell the two major parties something they don’t want to listen to?

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.