Thanks for explaining perotista. I didn't realize the independents were so dispersed.
2024 is going to be a nail biter while our democracy hangs in the balance. I know what my gut is telling me, but I hope it's wrong!
Most partisans of both major parties think independents as moderates or centrist. Which isn’t the case. You have independents way to the right of the Republican Party and way to the left of the Democratic Party. However, independents can be placed into basically 3 different categories, independents lean republican, independents lean democratic and true or pure independents with no leans. Then to throw a monkey wrench into what I said above, you find quite a lot of independents who support the republicans on some issues, oppose them on other issues. Same for supporting and opposing the democrats, they’ll support them on some issues and oppose them on others. Independents can truly be a wildcard where it's dangerous to forecast where they’ll come down or vote for. This idea that independents are somewhere in-between both major parties ideological wise isn’t true. They can be conservative on some issues, liberal on others. As an example, you’ll find a lot of independents pro-choice and pro-2nd amendment at the same time. You’ll find a lot of them very fiscal conservative, but socially liberal or vice versa.
Only 32% of independents approve of the overall job Biden is doing 59% disapprove, 30% of independents have a positive view of Trump, 59% a negative view. 62% of independents think Biden is too old to run for a second term, but 65% have grave concerns about Trump and his legal problems. To top all of this off, 69% of independents don’t want Biden to run again, 64% don’t want Trump to run again either.
So, where independents finally come down is anyone’s guess. All I can tell you is that today, they dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president. What they’re or I should say most independents are looking for is someone other than Biden or Trump. It could be RFK Jr. running as an independent or it could be whoever the candidate is for the no labels party. Or they may decide to vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils between Trump and Biden, the least worse candidate, the candidate they want to lose the least although they want both to lose. Who knows?
