Originally Posted by perotista
An interesting scenario is rising considering that that most Americans don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run again. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 16. 58% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 17.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_bpzPgoE.pdf

Add to the above the most recent Quinnipiac poll that shows Biden 36%, Trump 35%, RFK Jr. 19%, West 6%, someone else 1%. That’s 26% of all Americans stating they’d vote for someone other than Trump or Biden. Add the no labels party to this, especially if they come up with name recognized candidates with some good financial backing. You could have 30 or maybe 40% of all Americans voting for someone other than Biden or Trump.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881

The possibility exists where all the independent candidates, RJK Jr. West, no labels, Libertarian, Constitutional, etc. parties received more votes combined than either Trump or Biden received individually on their own or each received. But a combined third party/independents vote wins no states, it’s how they perform individually allowing either Trump or Biden winning the states in the electoral college with 30%, 33%, 35% of the vote.
I enjoy your analysis, my friend. I have a different take:
1) it's too early for meaningful polling, which doesn't mean that the uninformed don't influence the poll results.
2) once these fringe candidates get exposure, they will sink like a stone - like DeSantis.
3) the real election will be between Biden and Trump - a rerun of 2020. Notwithstanding considerable turbulence, the result is likely to be very similar.
4) Of course, in the next year major events which will influence the election will occur. Many are predictable - Trump trials, a Biden health crisis, a foreign affairs disaster, a climate disaster - but others may come out of left field. Trump would never have been elected without James Comey announcing an ineffectual and unnecessary "reopening" of a closed investigation. Who saw that coming?

A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich