An interesting scenario is rising considering that that most Americans don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run again. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 16. 58% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 17.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_bpzPgoE.pdfAdd to the above the most recent Quinnipiac poll that shows Biden 36%, Trump 35%, RFK Jr. 19%, West 6%, someone else 1%. That’s 26% of all Americans stating they’d vote for someone other than Trump or Biden. Add the no labels party to this, especially if they come up with name recognized candidates with some good financial backing. You could have 30 or maybe 40% of all Americans voting for someone other than Biden or Trump.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881The possibility exists where all the independent candidates, RJK Jr. West, no labels, Libertarian, Constitutional, etc. parties received more votes combined than either Trump or Biden received individually on their own or each received. But a combined third party/independents vote wins no states, it’s how they perform individually allowing either Trump or Biden winning the states in the electoral college with 30%, 33%, 35% of the vote.
I enjoy your analysis, my friend. I have a different take:
1) it's too early for meaningful polling, which doesn't mean that the uninformed don't influence the poll results.
2) once these fringe candidates get exposure, they will sink like a stone - like DeSantis.
3) the real election will be between Biden and Trump - a rerun of 2020. Notwithstanding considerable turbulence, the result is likely to be very similar.
4) Of course, in the next year major events which will influence the election will occur. Many are predictable - Trump trials, a Biden health crisis, a foreign affairs disaster, a climate disaster - but others may come out of left field. Trump would never have been elected without James Comey announcing an ineffectual and unnecessary "reopening" of a closed investigation. Who saw that coming?
I think 2024 will be more like 2016 than 2020. The reason is independents which you call uninformed voters. Which probably for the most part, you’re correct as they don’t pay much attention to politics until an election nears. In 2016 Trump won independents 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party. 6% of the total vote went to unknown and unheard-of candidates like Johnson, Stein, Castle, McMullin etc. None of them had any money, no political ads, no way to get their message out. They were only a third name on the ballot that wasn’t Trump nor Clinton.
In 2024 you’ll have RFK Jr., a well-known last name who seems to be raising some good money along with whoever the no labels party runs which will probably be a prominent politician such as Manchin, Hogan or someone akin to them. The no labels party has been promised some good money from donors if they run a candidate. All of this very unlike 2016 when third parties were outspent 1.9 billion for the two major parties, Clinton 1.2 billion, Trump 700 million rounding off to 2 million dollars for all third parties. Compare that to 2020, Biden 1.6 billion, Trump 1.1 billion or a total of 2.7 billion to third parties total spending of 3 million plus change. The two major parties gets their funds, their tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars from corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interests, super, mega, rich individual donors, etc.
Yes, it’s very early and third-party candidates have a habit of slipping lower and lower in the polls the closer we get to an election. But who will these today third-party stating voters vote for? Unknown at this time. Although I do agree, Trump’s trials and possible convictions next year will probably be the turning point in Biden’s favor. Many will probably leave Trump, but won't go to Biden. They'll probably go to third party candidates or stay home since they detest Biden and are pro-Trump. either way, it votes taken from Trump which is a huge plus for Biden.
