Today, looking at the House, both major parties have 23 seats at risk of switching. Where the districts are depending on voter turnout, even though the at-risk seats are even, the democrats in my opinion stand a better chance of retaining most of their at-risk seats than the republicans do. A gain of 5 seats would be a reasonable prediction at this point for the democrats. The republicans currently have a 220-213 advantage with 2 vacant seats. A gain of 5 seats in November of next year depending on the results of the two special elections this year would give the democrats between 218-220 seats and control. Of course, all of this will change as time moves on.
The senate is another matter. West Virginia is a lost cause; it will go republican. Ohio and Montana are two more states leaning in the GOP direction with no currently held republican seats at risk, they’re safe. If this were to hold, the republicans would regain control of the senate with the democrats in control of the house. They switch control of the chambers each now holds a majority.
