Presidential wise, Trump leads in the popular vote in just a two-candidate race, 47.2% to 44.1% over Biden. Which means the pollster gave the respondent only two choices, Trump or Biden, no independent or third-party choice.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.htmlElectoral college wise, Biden leads Trump 247-235 with 4 states in the tossup column, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecastBut in a poll that includes independent RFK Jr. Cornell West, you have Trump 41%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 16%, West 4%,
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24130797/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdfAnother has Trump 38%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 17%, West 3%, Stein 3%
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11152023_regvoter_ufse25.pdfInteresting that 20-25% of all Americans are as of today planning on voting third party or independent if the rematch of Biden vs. Trump occurs which seems inevitable. This speaks of the dislike and unwantedness of many Americans, especially independents who don’t want neither major party candidate to become their next president. Again, all of this will change over time. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 14. 56% don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_y2MuS3t.pdfHence, the high third party/independent vote when those polled are given the choice of more candidates than just Biden and Trump.