While there maybe 23 seats that may flip on November '24, I'm talking next month in January '24. Five GOP seats are going away in NY.
I’m not quite sure I follow you. If the districts in NY must be redrawn, those new districts wouldn’t take effect until after the Nov 2024 elections. It’s much like the Alabama case where the SCOTUS ruled their current map unconstitutional or in violation of the voting rights act. Alabama was made to redraw their map which they did. But the results of the 2022 midterms remain until the new election in Nov 2024.
New York as for republicans have these districts at risk of switching for NY for the Nov 2024 election. NY-03 Vacant, NY-04 Anthony D'Esposito, NY-17 Mike Lawler, NY-19 Marc Molinaro, NY-22 Brandon Williams.
Currently Democratic held seats I think stands a good chance of switching – AK 1, OH 9, ME 2, MI 7, MI 8, OH 13, PA 7, PA 8, WA 3. A total of 9 seats. Currently Republican held seats I think stands a good chance of switching – AL 2, CA 13, CA 22, CA 27, CA 45, NV 3, NY 3, NY 4, NY 17, NY 19, NY 22, OR 5. A total of 12 seats. Keep in mind all of this is dynamic and changes all the time. Having a good chance doesn’t mean they will. But the above districts have the best chance of switching. Which if I were to make a forecast based on the above, risky this far out, I’d say either party could gain or lose 5 seats. As the generic congressional ballot shows the same. A pure tossup as for control.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html
