I don’t think it’s so much advocating for RFK Jr. What we have is about a quarter of the electorate looking for someone other than Biden or Trump be that RFK Jr. Cornell West, Jill Stein, the Libertarian or whoever the no labels party settles on. Perhaps Manchin, Hogan, Romney or someone else. RFK Jr. just happens to be in the news more than the others. He also has the Kennedy name.
It's basically a lot of independents that are looking for someone else. They’re not going to get it. Although in 2016 12% of independents did vote third party with a lot more staying home and not voting due to their dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Clinton. We have the same dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Biden by independents going into 2024. Independents made up 40% of the electorate in both 2016 and in 2020, at least according to Gallup, so it’s easy to compare.
2016 independents made up 26% of those who voted, approximately 35.6 million which 12% voted third party or 4.3 million. In 2020 independents made up 29% of those who voted, approximately 46.4 million in which 5% voted third party, 2.3 million. Which 11 million more independents voted in 2020 than voted in 2016. The question is will those 11 million more independents vote in 2024 or stay home like they did in 2016? If they do vote, will they choose between Trump and Biden or pass on both by voting third party? Time will tell.
