I say unless RFK Jr., the no labels party or anyone else is well financed to the tune of at least a billion dollars, they won’t have a chance of winning. Since 1960 the candidate which raised and spent the most money won the presidential election with 2 exceptions. 1964 and 2016. 2016 saw Clinton spend 1.2 billion to Trump’s 647 million. In 2020 Biden raised and spent 1.6 billion to Trump’s 1.1 billion. Want to know who’ll win in 2024, follow the money. In third place was poor little Jo Jorgensen at less than 3 million dollars.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-raceThe feeling or thinking of this quarter of the electorate is not to give it to Trump. They don’t want Trump, but they don’t want Biden either. It’s to give it to someone other than Trump and other than Biden. They’re searching for that someone else. I’d say as time goes by, most of that quarter of the electorate will come to realize they’re stuck with the realistic choice of between Trump and Biden. That there isn’t any other viable candidate that they so earnestly searching for. It’s early, there’s still a Pacific Ocean worth of water to flow under the election bridge.
But I’d also say I think 2024 will be more akin to 2016 than 2020 with low voter turnout and a high third party vote due to the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. Exactly like 2016 was. The difference, 2016 voter turnout 54%, third party vote 6%. 2020 voter turnout 62%, third party vote 1.7%. I think Biden will win, but with less than 50% of the vote, of those who do vote which will be a lot less than in 2020. .
