Jeffrey - I don’t know how well no labels will do or even if they’ll field a candidate. I assume they will as they’ve worked hard to gain ballot access in 14 states and probably will succeed in another 15-20. As far as I know, read, no labels don’t have anyone else in mind. Although what they’re doing behind the scenes, out of the media’s eye, I haven’t a clue. I do know RFK Jr. is receding, his poll numbers are dropping. That he hasn’t been able to gain ballot access outside of two states. That makes me wonder if RFK Jr. has basically given up. His staff is in turmoil, many have quit.
Maybe we’ll back to the original third parties, Libertarian, they somehow manage to get on all 50 state ballots. The Green Party which gets on around 30 and West. But as far as I know, West hasn’t succeeded in gaining any ballot access on any state ballot. Then we’ll have 20 or so third parties on one, two or three state ballots. Usually drawing well less than one percent of the vote in any of the states they’re on.
But we’re still left with around a quarter of the electorate wanting and looking for someone other than Biden and Trump. If not No Labels or RFK Jr. then who? I imagine most of that quarter looking for someone else will in the end decide between Trump and Biden as the candidate they want to lose the least. Then a good portion will probably stay home and not vote since they couldn’t find a candidate they wanted. The only thing I know for certain is that there’s very little enthusiasm for this rematch.
But it’s early, only 40% of all Americans have been paying a lot of attention to this upcoming election. That will change as we get closer to November. As folks attention turns toward the election, the numbers will change. What we have today is approximately 35% solidly in Trump’s corner, 35% in Biden’s with 30% either in the vote third party mode or not vote at all or undecided column. This time in 2016 we had 24% in the vote third party, not vote at all or undecided column. But in 2020 we had but 9% in the vote third party, not vote at all or undecided column.
