Jeffrey, another big reason Hillary lost was she let Trump both outwork and out campaign her on the campaign trail. 116 campaign visits, stops, rallies for Trump from 1 Sep to election day 2016 to Hillary’s 71. That 71 looks larger than what it was as it included fund raisers in deep blue California and New York. The deciding states, Wisconsin, Trump 5 visits, Hillary 0. Michigan Trump 6, Hillary 1. Pennsylvania Trump 8, Hillary 5. That 5 would have been 4 if Hillary hadn’t made an election eve stop in Pittsburgh. Even in electoral vote rich Florida Hillary let Trump outwork and out campaign her there, 13 to 8. I was doing monthly forecasts back then, but many of us wondered if there wasn’t something physically wrong with Hillary, like sick or something.
Arrogance, certainly. That caused her to lose the independent vote for those independents who actually voted. 46-42 over Trump with 12% voting third party. 54% of all independents disliked both and didn’t want neither one as the next president.
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspxHillary did come across as arrogant, as aloof, an elitist know it all vs. Trump’s obnoxiousness, his rudeness, uncouth, egotistical throw in a bunch more adjectives in front of his name. Traits that turned independents off on both. Independents made up only 25% of those who actually voted in 2016 although at the time they made up 41% of the electorate. The democrats had a 6 point advantage in party affiliation but that shrunk to a 3 point advantage among those who voted. Voter turnout was very important to Trump’s win, 54% turned out in 2016 using VAP, 137 million. In 2020 when Biden won independents 54-41, independents made up 30% of those who voted, voter turnout was 62%, 160 million. Biden won new voters, those who didn’t vote in 2016 but did in 2020, some 23 million people 64-32 over Trump. Voter turnout was one main key in both Biden’s win and Hillary Clinton’s loss.
