I think where people get the polls wrong is they don’t take the MOE into consideration. Some examples: The polls had the republicans winning the midterm congressional vote by 2.5 points. They won it by 2.8 points. Well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The polls had Biden winning by 7.2 points in 2020. He won by 4.5 points. Barely within the MOE, but within it. Sure, the polls missed it by 2.7 points, but one needs to factor in the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Same for the 2018 midterms which had the democrats winning the national congressional vote by 7.3 points, they won it by 8.4 points. Still within the MOE. The polls had Clinton winning in 2016 by 3.2 points, she won the popular vote by 2.1 points. That pretty darn close and once again within the MOE. And so on, on back. I don’t think most folks who say the polls were wrong understand the MOE each poll has.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.htmlhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-bidenhttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.htmlhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clintonThe latest polling average has Trump ahead by 0.2 points in a two-candidate race. That is basically a tie. I would consider it a tie because of the MOE of plus or minus 3 points even if Trump was ahead by 3 points or behind Biden by 3 points. Mainly because that is the margin of error most polls have.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-bidenI believe trends are far more important than the horserace numbers. Trump took the lead in September of last year averaging around a 2.5-point lead until the end of March this year. Since then Biden has narrowed that to 0.2 points. That’s a trend worth watching. Leaving the polls behind, I think Biden will win. Today, Biden trails Trump among independents, the election deciders. Which is why we have a basic tie instead of Biden being 5 or 6 points ahead. But the general election campaign hasn’t started yet, at least officially. I think once it begins, once independents who really disliked Trump back in 2020, but liked Biden enough to vote for him by a 54-41 vote margin will begin to return. Today most independents dislike both and don’t want neither one as their next president. But once the general election campaign begins, Trump will be Trump, his old obnoxious, uncouth, rude self. His name calling, throwing of temper tantrums along with his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics. He will remind independents why they disliked him so much back in 2020. They may still dislike Biden. Worry about Biden’s age and his mental fitness for another term. They still won’t like Biden’s job performances or his handling of most issues. But they’ll dislike Biden less than they do Trump and end up supporting Biden. I’d worry about turnout though and those independents voting third party against both.
