For the last two years, this is from a numbers guy, an avid polls watcher and research paper reader, Biden has had somewhere between 55-60% of all Americans who don’t want him reelected. The Pew Research paper delves into this along with job approval numbers, the age and mental fitness worries all play into where we’re at today with this rematch. I give the Trumpers a higher percentage of all Americans than you. Around 30%. No where near enough to win an election. What we also have is around the same percentage of Americans who don’t want Trump to regain the white house. Thus, the basic tied between Biden and Trump.
Even in 2020, people weren’t in love with Biden. He was that year, an acceptable alternative to Trump. People were anti-Trump, but not pro-Biden which translated into Biden’s 7 plus million vote victory. But at the same time, a lot of people who voted for Biden, against Trump, turned around and voted republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats. 2020 was only the second time in our history where a candidate won the popular vote on his way to the presidency and lost house seats. 1884, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote and the presidency by 50,000 votes, yet the democrats lost 8 house seats. 50,000 is a huge difference than winning by 7 plus million.
We had a sitting president in 2020 that the people didn’t want reelected, but an acceptable alternative to that sitting president in Biden. Today, we’re back to having a sitting president that isn’t wanted, ALA 2020, but the alternative isn’t wanted either. Hence the basic tie. And yes, it’s independents that has switched from going to Biden in 2020 54-41 to going to Trump so far this year, 37% Trump, 35% Biden, with the rest in the vote third party, will not vote or undecided columns. Which wipes away the 7 million vote margin Biden won the 2020 election by. You have 28% of independents still looking for an alternative to both Biden and Trump. They don’t want neither one. They’re falling into the vote third party, will not vote or still undecided columns.
People are just as much anti-Trump today as they were in 2020. The big difference is today they’re also anti-Biden whereas in 2020 they weren’t. Biden is president today, not Trump which is another huge difference.
The obvious part was Biden wasn’t going to win reelection. That is until Trump became the GOP nominee. Which turned an obvious landslide defeat into a 50-50 shot for both. Biden’s numbers are worse than Jimmy Carter’s in 1980, worse than G.H.W. Bush in 1992, worse than Trump’s in 2020. With the dislike and unwantedness of Trump still present, I firmly believe that almost any other democratic candidate than Biden would be trouncing Trump. Most people wanted someone other than Biden and Trump this year. Most wanted a fresh, younger face, not two old foggies which one belongs in a nursing home and the other in jail.
But unlike you, I believe Biden will pull this out. Never underestimate the power of incumbency. Then too, way too many people out there among the masses still can’t believe this election will be between Biden and Trump. That reality hasn’t sunk in yet.
